Eurosceptische partijen doen het goed in peilingen (en)

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - The European elections in the UK are not known for producing excitement or generating column inches - in fact a lower percentage of Britons turned out to vote in the last elections in 1999 than in any other country.

Famously more people voted in the popular reality TV show Big Brother.

But this time, the UK - whose voters, along with the Dutch, are Europe's first to the polls -could produce among the most exciting and unpredictable results of all 25 states.

The reason for the change in climate is the rise of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), which advocates Britain's withdrawal from the EU, and could secure anywhere between 13 and 21 percent of the vote, according to various recent polls.

What seems sure is that UKIP are set to increase their number of seats in the European Parliament and will hit both centre-left and centre-right mainstream support.

Riding the crest of the eurosceptic wave

Part of UKIP's success can be put down to a general European trend and part to domestic reasons.

The rise in support for UKIP mirrors similar trends across the EU, where eurosceptic parties are expected to make big gains.

In Poland, a recent poll put the populist Samoobrona party, led by the firebrand Andrzej Lepper, in second place with 13 percent of the vote.

The top party in the Czech Republic is led by President Vaclav Klaus who has warned that EU entry marks the end of the Czech Republic as a sovereign state.

And eurosceptics are also expected to secure seats in the Netherlands, Denmark, France and maybe Sweden and Estonia, although anti-EU sentiment appears to be declining in Scandinavia.

The tone of the campaign in the Netherlands has also become more eurosceptic. But it remains unclear whether two eurosceptic parties - contending for the first time - will secure a seat.

Money, money, money

But UKIP have shot up in the polls for domestic reasons too.

The recruitment of celebrities such as Robert Kilroy-Silk, a well-known TV personality who resigned from the BBC after making anti-Arab remarks in a newspaper column, and TV actress Joan Collins has boosted their image.

And their media strategy, masterminded by well-known publicist Max Clifford and a former advisor to Bill Clinton, has generated reams of newspaper copy.

All this has been made possible by a campaign war chest which they claim is worth two million pounds.

Tories on the way down

Of the mainstream parties, UKIP's rise will probably hit the centre-right Conservatives the hardest.

The Tories, also eurosceptic but not advocating British withdrawal from the EU, have lost four peers (members of the House of Lords) and several former MPs who have "defected" to UKIP.

Polls also suggest that they are losing the support of Tory voters who want the party to take a harder line on Europe.

And the rise of UKIP threatens to take the wind out of the Tory sails just as they were on the up again after ridding themselves of the unpopular Iain Duncan Smith and reuniting behind Michael Howard.

It has also forced the Tories into re-establishing their eurosceptic credentials. Mr Howard wrote an article in this morning's press warning that, "Europe is not working properly".

The governing centre-left Labour Party of Tony Blair is also likely to suffer from UKIP draining away its support, but to a lesser extent. It will, however, have to contend with the "mid-term bashing" traditionally meted out to government in European elections and continued anger over Mr Blair's pro-American Iraq policy.

The Liberals - traditionally the UK's third party - could even be pushed into fourth place by UKIP, if some polls predict correctly. The Liberal Democrat party have campaigned on a pro-EU, anti-war ticket. The Green party are also expected to do at least as well as last time and have been sharpening their eurosceptic rhetoric in response to UKIP.

Don't miss the post

An experiment with compulsory postal voting is being tried for the first time during this election - mainly in the North of England - in a bid to boost miserable turnout.

The new scheme appears to be having some success. According to the BBC, with three days to go, European election turnout in the North West was already higher, at 25 percent, than in 1999, when it was 19.5 percent.

The British will also be voting in local council elections and Londoners will vote for a new mayor, in what has been dubbed "super Thursday".

The most recent poll - by Populus for the Times - puts the Conservatives on 24 percent (well down from the 36 percent they polled in 1999), roughly neck-and-neck with Labour, who are set to receive between 25 and 26 percent. Next come the Liberal Democrats, with between 16 and 18 percent, followed by UKIP at 13 percent. The Greens are expected to climb from six to between eight and nine percent.